Maximize your ROI with Opportunity & Risk Navigation

Unlocking growth in the low-and-no alcohol space

How we helped a luxury alcohol brand evaluate and enter one of the fastest-growing categories in premium drinks

A global luxury alcohol brand wanted to understand whether a new generation of consumers was ready for a high-end low and no alcohol offering. They had observed cultural and behavioral shifts toward moderation and mindful drinking and wanted to know if this represented a credible commercial opportunity worth pursuing. The challenge was to identify viable audiences, map the drivers of low and no alcohol consumption, and size the opportunity across key markets. We applied our Opportunity and Risk Navigation methodology to bring clarity, evidence, and commercial rigor to a rapidly emerging category. 

Our Approach

Validate the hypothesis

We tested the belief that younger consumers, especially millennials, would lead the demand for premium low and no alcohol products. We explored their motivations, barriers, and expectations around mindful drinking and luxury social experiences.

Map emerging behaviors

Using quantitative and qualitative insight, we identified the shifts shaping new drinking occasions. This included wellness-led choices, social expectations, blended drinking habits, and a rising openness to sophisticated low-alcohol alternatives.

Size priority audience groups

We created six attitudinal and lifestyle personas tied to alcohol moderation behaviors and sized them across the US and UK markets. This revealed five high-value audience sub-groups representing a combined 33 percent of the 21+ buying population and more than 20 million consumers.

Quantify commercial opportunity

By combining audience size with category willingness-to-pay and consumption patterns, we identified a revenue opportunity exceeding 11 million dollars, with clear implications for product design, positioning, and channel strategy.

Identify innovation spaces

We pinpointed specific drinking occasions and moments where a premium low or no alcohol offering would have the strongest relevance. These insights informed product partnerships, recipe development, and collaboration opportunities within the luxury drinks ecosystem.

The Outcome

The work enabled the luxury alcohol brand to: 

  • Enter the low and no alcohol category early and credibly 
  • Build a targeted activation and partnership strategy 
  • Align senior teams around a clear and validated commercial opportunity 
  • Understand the motivations of mindful drinkers and how to serve them 
  • Create a category presence that matched the expectations of high-end consumers 

 The brand went on to form a high-profile partnership and launch a new series of low alcohol serves designed for upscale social settings. The category has since become a multi-billion-dollar global market, validating the strategic decision to move early. 

“We were able to identify three new growth territories and accelerate market entry with a level of certainty that traditional research never gave us. This fundamentally changed how we approach category expansion.”

Opportunity & Risk Navigation helps organizations distinguish between noise and signal

Opportunity & Risk Navigation helps organizations turn uncertainty into quantified growth advantage by transforming raw signals into direction and commercial clarity. We combine market-demand analysis, de-risking strategies, and whitespace identification with real-time commercial signals, consumer insight, and investment-grade financial modeling to guide what to act on now, next, and later, and what each decision is worth. Our approach applies proprietary foresight analytics, maturity and velocity scoring, and dynamic market simulation to reveal where commercial momentum is forming, where risk exposure is intensifying, and where early-mover advantage remains.

Our Approach

Explore

Distilling signal from noise: We analyze market signals at scale, from commercial activity to patents to consumer sentiment, revealing where genuine energy is forming before it becomes visible through traditional research channels.

Scope

Identifying what is real, relevant, and ready: Using quantitative and qualitative insight, we identified the shifts shaping new drinking occasions. This included wellness-led choices, social expectations, blended drinking habits, and a rising openness to sophisticated low-alcohol alternatives.

Invest

Quantifying the size of the prize: We build TAM/SAM/SOM models, EBIT forecasts, risk-adjusted scenarios, and investment pathways so leadership teams have defensible, decision-ready financial cases for growth.

What you get

1) Quantified foresight frameworks and prioritization dashboards

2) Real-time visualization of signal velocity and momentum

3) A curated portfolio of validated opportunities

3) TAM/SAM/SOM sizing and EBIT projections

5) Scenario modeling and resilience planning

6) Advisory partnership that builds continuous foresight capability

What you gain

1) Clarity: confidence on where to focus efforts and resources

2) Confidence: decisions grounded in financial and predictive evidence

3) Capability: empowered teams fluent in foresight navigation

4) Competitive edge: faster decisions, earlier entry, and measurable ROI from anticipation

Best for

1) Organizations facing disruption or shifting market demand

2) Strategy, innovation, insights, R&D, and growth teams

3) Leaders prioritizing multiple emerging opportunities

4) Executives who need defensible, data-backed decision frameworks

5) Companies seeking earlier market visibility and future-proofed investment

Prioritise where to act for maximum ROI

Whether you’re navigating disruption, exploring new markets, or building resilience, our expert-led team applies strategic foresight to help you create measurable advantage.