How is the Iran conflict shaping consumer behaviour trends on social media?

This report from Foresight Factory tracks how the Iran conflict is shaping consumer behaviour trends across social media, from cooling mention volume and negative sentiment to shifting search interest in EVs, solar panels and shortages.

Introduction

Markets and societies were rocked when the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran on February 28th. Since those initial strikes, the situation has evolved rapidly, with the conflict impacting everything from interconnected supply chains and global tourism to gas and food prices. While a temporary ceasefire was declared in early April, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely cut off to shipping, and experts suggest that economic and political fallout will be felt for some time to come.

Here we turn to our social listening partner Brandwatch as well as Google search data to track consumer attitudes to the conflict, including the overall volume of conversation, the markets that are most engaged, evolving consumer behaviour trends and related trending topics. At Foresight Factory, this kind of real-time tracking sits alongside our wider work on consumer sentiment and cultural change.

Our Brandwatch analysis looks at mentions of the conflict in conjunction with discussions on how the events are impacting daily life, and it includes social media posts from X, Instagram, Reddit, Bluesky, Threads and Facebook.

Key developments in the last month

  • Mention volume has reduced, but remains elevated. The most recent spike in interest came when a ceasefire was announced on April 7th. Since then, the truce has largely held, but with no permanent solution to the blocked Strait of Hormuz.
  • Trending topics reflect polarized debate in the US. Social media debate is moving away from the mainstream issues of energy infrastructure and national security, and toward topics that reflect American partisan politics. For instance, “billionaire tax” refers to posts opining that tax cuts for billionaires are being prioritized over cuts to gas prices.
  • Shortages and supply chain issues generate discussion. “Shortages” has become a more widely searched term. One eye-catching story has been that of Japanese snack brand Calbee, which has resorted to printing its labels in monochrome due to a shortage of the chemical naphtha.

Mention volume has reduced, but remains elevated

On social media, the volume of mentions of the Iran conflict peaked in the days immediately following the initial strikes. While volume declined in the week following, it remains elevated, with spikes often coinciding with notable headlines.

Google Trends data tells a similar story, with searches for “Iran” reaching peak interest at the start of March, and then rising again somewhat when the temporary ceasefire was declared. Here you can also see in which markets searches for “Iran” were most popular over the last month.

Has social media conversation about the Iran conflict slowed down?

Mention volume has fallen from its initial peak after the February 28th strikes, but it remains elevated, with spikes still tied to major headlines such as the April 7th ceasefire announcement and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Consumer sentiment leans negative

Sentiment across social media posts relating to Iran leans negative: as of mid-May, 52% of posts since the start of the conflict were deemed negative, compared with 36% neutral and 12% positive.

Clustering topics within sentiments offers an idea of the subjects that are evoking different emotions among consumers.

On the positive side of things, there are mentions of “oppressed” and “freedom”, with many posts putting forward the opinion that the Iranian people have been oppressed for 47 years and now things might change.

“Trump” appears in all three sentiment buckets, reflecting the divisive nature of the President and his actions.

Trending topics reflect polarized debate in the US

 

Foresight Factory’s tracking shows which topics conversation is coalescing around, and which topics are fading in popularity. As of mid-May, this suggests that social media debate is moving away from the mainstream issues of energy infrastructure and national security, and toward topics that reflect American partisan politics.

For instance, “billionaire tax” refers to posts opining that tax cuts for billionaires are being prioritized over cuts to gas prices. “Iranian woman” refers to an incident in a filmed debate on how people in Iran feel about the US and Israeli actions.

The war may be sparking new interest in alternative energy sources

Some commentators have suggested that rising oil and gas prices mean that electric vehicles could be in higher demand. And that hypothesis is playing out in Google Trends data.

Over the last five years, worldwide searches for “used EVs” have been rising gradually. But in summer 2025 the increase became more dramatic, likely due to a combination of lower prices, expiring incentives in the US that created new urgency, and an increased pool of off-lease inventory that gave buyers more choice. Searches peaked in March of this year, most likely connected to the geopolitical conflict and its impact on “pump anxiety” as fuel prices soar. A similar pattern can be seen when it comes to the topic of solar panels, as consumers also seek ways to reduce their home energy costs.

Shortages and supply chain issues generate discussion

“Shortages” has become a more widely searched term as the impact of the closed Strait of Hormuz manifests itself in numerous ways. One eye-catching story has been that of Japanese snack brand Calbee, which has resorted to printing its labels in monochrome due to a shortage of the chemical naphtha. Meanwhile, a shortage of Diet Coke in India has led to the spread of special ticketed events where people can access the beverage, alongside themed activities. So-called “Diet Coke parties” have been publicized widely on social media.

What shortages has the Iran conflict caused?

The closed Strait of Hormuz has contributed to shortages including the chemical naphtha, prompting Japanese snack brand Calbee to print its labels in monochrome, and a Diet Coke shortage in India that has led to ticketed “Diet Coke parties” as consumers seek access to the drink.

Talk to us about what these insights mean for you

Whether you’re an FMCG brand, an automaker or an insurance company, you’re likely thinking about how to adapt to and stay ahead of new geopolitical and economic realities. Reach out to your account manager for more tailored guidance on how to mitigate risk, seize new opportunities and turn insight into action.