Prediction markets, philosophy and over-quantification: January 2026 consumer trends

Even amid the rise of streaming, live TV viewing is reaching new heights

If you thought consumers were losing interest in live televised events, think again. In the US, Nielsen data shows a notable uptick in viewership of major live TV events in 2025. The Super Bowl drew a record 127.7 million viewers, the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade attracted 34.3 million viewers (another record), and almost 45 million viewers tuned into the three NFL games that took place on Thanksgiving Day.

While Axios attributes this shift to “how much audiences are craving communal, real-time experiences”, there could be another, less obvious factor at play. Enter: prediction markets.

Prediction markets could keep this momentum going

Over the past two years, prediction markets have boomed: they’ve reportedly grown 130 times in size, with the value of bets placed increasing from $100 million to $13 billion a month. Luana Lopes Lara, the 29-year-old co-founder of prediction market Kalshi, recently became the youngest self-made female billionaire, unseating Taylor Swift. And in October, the youngest male self-made billionaire was 28-year-old Shayne Coplan, founder of another prediction market, Polymarket.

What makes these platforms so successful is their model: they allow consumers to make bets on everything from election outcomes to quarterly earnings reports, weather events, industry awards and much more. Easily accessible and with a gamified interface, they combine useful information with fun – not to mention attractive financial incentives. For those bettors eager to see first-hand whether they’ve made a successful wager, tuning into events such as the Super Bowl becomes about more than just entertainment – it’s about potentially watching their fortunes grow in real time.

Attitudes toward this kind of betting are somewhat polarized

Our data shows that consumers are relatively torn when it comes to the moral acceptability of betting on real-life events such as extreme weather events: 36% globally agree that it’s acceptable, and 30% disagree. Millennials are the most likely to agree. As these markets become more mainstream, we could see attitudes shift towards more positivity.

However, the ethics of betting on major geopolitical events remain murky, and accusations of insider trading abound. One anonymous bettor sparked controversy when they raked in more than $400,000 after betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would soon be out of office, mere hours before the leader was captured by US troops.

How can media brands capitalize on the rise of prediction markets?

Redesign series and live broadcasts for the ultimate emotional payoff. Consumers have long enjoyed the excitement and immediacy of live events. If prediction markets continue to gain steam, we may see this trend become even stronger. Media brands can play into this by creating “moment of truth” content that heightens anticipation before the big reveal.

Partner with prediction platforms to capitalize on the hype and encourage deeper viewer engagement. Already, Polymarket has struck up partnerships with the Golden Globes, Dow Jones and sports and entertainment company TKO, while Kalshi has forged deals with CNN, CNBC and the NHL to provide real-time insights on their events. Consider what role crowd-sourced, predictive insights could play for your brand and whether integrating these into the viewing experience would resonate with your audiences.

2. Philosophy’s comeback, and why critical thinking is the new cool

Critical thinking is staging a return

We’re witnessing an unexpected cultural shift: philosophy is having a mainstream moment. After years of algorithmic content feeding consumers bite-sized dopamine hits, there’s a counter-movement emerging. From New York Philosophy Club’s weekly discussions drawing Gen Z crowds, to psychologist @blussomly’s “stoicism but make it cute” series amassing over 100,000 followers and millions of views, to the popularity of the University of Pennsylvania course consisting of eight-hour, in-person gatherings where attendees read and then discuss a book, consumers are actively seeking intellectual depth.

@blussomly

GIRLIE stop making your life harder than it has to be by worrying about stuff you can’t control!! 🙇‍♀️ #stoicism #stoicismforwomen #psychology #mindset #motivation #selfhelp #selfcare #mentalwellness #anxiety #overthinking #worrying #presentation #reframe #reminder #fyppp

♬ Green Gramophone soundtrack from Hello Neighbour – timaeqq

Philosophy as operating system

Podcasts such as Philosophize This! that break down complex philosophical concepts in accessible ways are proliferating, while Substacks like Philosophical Convictions and Commonplace Philosophy are recommending reading lists for 2026 that blend classical texts with contemporary applications. Stoicism in particular has become a lens for managing digital overwhelm, uncertainty, and loss of control – issues that resonate deeply in the current digital context. Consumers are adopting enduring philosophical frameworks as practical toolkits for navigating contemporary challenges.

And while consumers are using philosophical concepts to understand, and sometimes challenge, technological development, tech leaders are using them to explain and justify business decisions. For example, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman has discussed balancing safety and capability through ethical frameworks when considering AI trade-offs, while Peter Thiel draws on René Girard’s mimetic theory to explain competition and innovation. Meanwhile, figures like businessman Marc Andreessen have used accelerationism – the idea that technology should advance as rapidly as possible – to frame their approach to AI development.

How should brands connect to consumers as philosophy gains new traction?

Position your brand as a facilitator of deeper engagement rather than just an attention-seeker. This might mean creating content that rewards sustained focus and learning or developing products and campaigns that acknowledge complexity rather than oversimplifying. Brands have an opportunity to support consumers’ desire for upskilling – in philosophy and beyond.

Avoid superficially co-opting philosophical language. While digestible explainer content can help those new to philosophy understand complex concepts more quickly, the proliferation of such content on social media could risk philosophies being diluted or misunderstood. This could lead to a backlash similar to the pushback against “therapy-speak” if consumers cherry-pick the elements that fit their personal narrative but don’t truly understand the philosophical frameworks they are engaging and so don’t apply them in the best or most positive ways. To avoid this, ensure your brand and team fully understand any concepts being highlighted, and consciously contribute to more thoughtful discourse while creating space for reflection.

Support the pursuit of intellectual engagement as self-care. Consumers want to recapture and refocus their attention on the things that matter, and engage with slower, deeper questions at their own pace. This won’t necessarily be easy, and one route consumers may choose is to supplement with nootropics to support their concentration.

3. Consumers count the potential costs of over-quantification

Conflicting signals raise questions about the benefits of tracking and monitoring

The new year again brought with it for many a desire to optimize various aspects of life, including health, wealth and organization. Many of these involve quantification and tracking, covering metrics such as movement, saving, time use and more. And while tech and AI mean there are more tools to help than ever before, there have again been warnings that quantification and monitoring may do more harm than good.

Quantifying the year just gone grows exponentially

Even before setting goals for 2026, many consumers will have been digesting an array of statistics from a wide range of brands they have interacted with in 2025. While Spotify Wrapped again generated a good deal of social media chatter, many other brands decided to offer their users a roundup of their activity and interactions. LinkedIn, for instance, offered an array of stats, including who users interacted with most over the year, while Tesco’s Clubcard Unpacked informed members that, for instance, they were in the top 1% of petit pois purchasers in Guildford. ChatGPT also got in on the act with a personalized review feature.There is undeniable interest among consumers in finding out more about themselves, and initiatives like these can strengthen affinity with brands. However, initiatives like these do add to the array of data and metrics that people are presented with today.

An author warns about the over-quantification of everyday life

A new book, The Score by C Thi Nguyen, warns that trying to quantify, track and gamify too much in life can be a bad thing. Nguyen coins the term “value capture” to express the idea that the metrics used to track progress can become more important in an individual’s mind than the overall objective, so much so that it can “redefine your core sense of what’s important”.One example cited that relates to health is the widely recognized objective of taking 10,000 steps a day, even though the figure has been shown to have little scientific basis. (In fact, the target originated as a marketing campaign for pedometers during the Tokyo Olympics of 1964.) Other manifestations include elaborate scoring systems for the appraisal of wine that could end up losing sight of what makes the drink enjoyable, as well as articles that are more focused on attracting clicks than achieving readability.We have previously explored how some consumers may choose to swap data tracking for intuition when it comes to health. One area that’s particularly come into focus is orthosomnia – the phenomenon where an individual becomes so obsessed with getting a perfect night’s sleep based on tracking data that they develop insomnia.

E-waste generated by health wearables is predicted to grow

More negative headlines for the quantified-self movement came in the form of a new study from Cornell University and the University of Chicago, which found that wearable health devices could generate a million tons of e-waste by 2050. It’s predicted that the total number of such devices – which might include glucose monitors as well as fitness trackers and more – will grow to 2 billion a year, which is 42 times higher than now. The combined carbon footprint of these devices is also expected to amount to 100 million tons. The study authors suggest ways to reduce e-waste, such as modular designs and using common metals instead of rare minerals in manufacture.

One area where there is a good deal of wearables innovation is brain tracking. Brain gear is being touted as the hot new wearable, with CES 2026 seeing the launch of a gaming headset that can be controlled by brainwaves, and Elemind’s sleep headband that is designed to improve sleep quality by monitoring brain activity.

How should brands react as attitudes to quantification shift?

Strike a balance for consumers conflicted on quantification. Taken together, these examples highlight a tension: while many consumers enjoy tracking their activities and progress, there is always a risk that they can become overly focused on metrics. Brands who activate in the area of quantification and gamification should therefore ensure that messaging and campaigns do not lose sight of the wider objectives at stake. This could involve reminding consumers to consider holistically whether they feel healthier or more content, rather than hitting arbitrary goals, or whether they truly enjoy reading, rather than getting through as many books as possible.

Talk to us about getting access to Collision 

These January 2026 consumer trends are part of a longer report published on Collision, our dynamic trends intelligence platform. Members get access to these reports at the beginning of every month, so they always have a finger on the pulse of consumers and culture. If you’re interested in learning more about Collision and how the platform can make a difference to your business, get in touch today.