Will increased global conflict stall the rise of the manosphere?
Emerging research suggests war may resist, not accelerate, the manosphere’s traditional gender narrative, as wartime realities in Ukraine push women into new economic and social roles, challenging assumptions seen in the US and UK.
LSE paper suggests “there’s no space for” anti-feminist discourse in war-torn Ukraine
Current cultural discourse would have you believe that the march of progressive ideas such as equality and inclusion has been halted by the return of more traditional values. But a publication from the London School of Economics, written by postdoctoral researcher Karmen Tornius, suggests that the opposite may occur when it comes to gender norms during wartime, particularly in countries at war.
According to the paper, the return to traditional gender norms, which Foresight Factory explores in Trad Revival, is not happening on the same scale in Ukraine as it is in countries like the US and UK. One reason is that “war has been testing the role of women in society and related ‘family values’ in very practical ways.” For example, since the outbreak of the war, millions of women have volunteered, supported displaced people and veterans, joined formerly male-dominated sectors like farming and mining, and enlisted in the armed forces. “An emphasis on family values and devaluation of women as independent and productive members of society has become out of touch with the realities of life in Ukraine since the beginning of the war,” reads the publication.
Why does war affect the manosphere and gender norms?
- War has long acted as a catalyst for female empowerment; a famous example is World War I, when the mass mobilization of women in the workforce directly paved the way for women’s suffrage. While the rise of the #tradwife movement and the manosphere among younger consumers seems to suggest that the breaking down of traditional gender roles is in some ways reversing, it’s important to note that this is not universal, nor is it inevitable in a world where conflict could increase.
- At the same time, the war in Ukraine may not be fully representative of future conflicts. With troops on the ground and labor very visible, it makes sense that women’s contributions in Ukraine are having an impact on gender perceptions. But if future conflict is focused more on cyber, informational and economic warfare, consumers will be less exposed to the practical necessity of gender cooperation, potentially leading to more manosphere-style thinking and rhetoric rather than less.
Q&A
What is a weak signal?
Foresight Factory defines weak signals as quiet indicators of cultural, social or structural change that could have a transformative effect on the future of trends and drivers. Every week, our team tracks new emerging phenomena, data anomalies and divergent expert views that challenge existing beliefs and biases, so you can see beyond and prepare for what’s next.
Does war reverse or accelerate progress on gender equality?
It depends on the nature of the conflict. Historically, as with World War I, mass mobilization of women has accelerated gender equality gains. In Ukraine today, the practical necessity of women filling new economic and social roles is having a similar effect, undercutting the pull of anti-feminist, traditionalist narratives. However, this isn’t guaranteed for all future conflicts, especially those fought more through cyber, informational and economic channels rather than visible, on-the-ground labor.