Weak signal: How are global crises reshaping consumer spending behavior in 2026?

Global events, from tariffs to conflict, are reshaping consumer spending behavior across the US and UK. New segmentation data from Foresight Factory identifies four distinct shopper responses, giving brands a strategic framework for messaging through ongoing uncertainty. 

Introduction 

Consumers have had to contend with more than their fair share of disruption in recent years, from COVID to the Ukraine war, to Trump’s tariffs and conflict in Iran. While shoppers tend to have tried and tested strategies for coping with the cost of living, each situation brings with it particular circumstances and challenges. 

In this blog, we share a taste of our latest data on how American and British consumers say international events are affecting their spending decisions, including conflict and tariffs. By segmenting shoppers according to their responses, Foresight Factory provides a strategic view on how best to support consumers through current and future crises. 

Price sensitivity is becoming the new normal  

Most consumers alter their decisions in some way due to international events. Around 1 in 2 Brits (52%) and Americans (48%) say they pay closer attention to prices as a result of global happenings such as conflicts or political instability, with 1 in 3 reducing their everyday spending and many also delaying or avoiding making large purchases (source: Foresight Factory, 2026).

This is not a niche reaction confined to any one market or mindset. Price attentiveness, spending pullback and purchase delay are now mainstream behaviors on both sides of the Atlantic, which means brands cannot treat heightened price sensitivity as a temporary blip to wait out. It is fast becoming a baseline expectation that consumers bring into every purchase decision, regardless of category. 

Vacations and trips are also affected, with some consumers saying they delay or avoid booking international travel. The situation in the Middle East has caused disruption to flights in the region, as well as concerns about supplies of jet fuel. For travel, hospitality and other discretionary categories, this signals that the impact of geopolitical instability is not limited to everyday essentials. It is reaching into bigger-ticket, higher-margin purchase decisions too, making timing and reassurance just as important as price. 

Gen X are most price sensitive, while Gen Z prioritize short-term enjoyment 

There are notable differences in attitude by generation. As is often the case, Gen X is feeling the pinch: they are most likely to agree that they pay close attention to prices, reduce everyday spending, and delay or avoid large purchases. This is likely because many are at a life stage when they have heavy financial responsibilities, such as paying a mortgage, raising a family and thinking about retirement. 

Gen Z, meanwhile, are more likely than consumers on average to say they prioritize short-term enjoyment or experiences, highlighting a live-for-today attitude. At the same time, however, Gen Z are also the most likely to say they increase the amount they put into savings, showing that they do not entirely ignore future financial planning. 

The most distinguishing attitude of Baby Boomers is that while they are aware of international events, these aren’t necessarily affecting their personal decisions. This may be because they are more likely to be on a fixed income and have lower outgoings generally. 

The responses of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), meanwhile, demonstrate the impact that relative financial security can have on attitudes. This group is considerably more likely than the average consumer to prioritize long-term planning and financial security, to save more or to not change their decisions, and they are also less likely to show price sensitivity. 

Taken together, these generational patterns make clear that there is no single consumer response to global instability, and financial life stage matters as much as age itself. A mortgage-holding Gen Xer, a saving-conscious Gen Zer and an income-secure HNWI are all reading the same headlines, but arriving at very different decisions as a result. Brands that assume a uniform reaction, whether that is blanket caution or blanket indifference, risk misreading a large share of their audience. The more useful lens is not generation alone, but the underlying financial confidence and life-stage pressures that sit behind each group’s response. 

What are the four consumer segments shaping response strategy? 

Advanced analysis by Foresight Factory identifies four distinct segments important to response planning and targeting. Each group has a distinct demographic profile and differing priorities, and each calls for a different mix of reassurance, flexibility and long-term positioning from brands. 

  1. Everyday Reducers will appreciate tangible efforts from brands to keep costs down. This group is more likely to demonstrate a variety of behavioral changes, including paying more attention to prices, reducing everyday spending and delaying or avoiding large purchases. For this group, visible, near-term value matters more than long-term messaging. 
  2. Savers will expect long-term support rather than just immediate price cuts. Their defining behavior change is increasing the amount they put into savings, but they also pay close attention to prices, and they are most likely to say they prioritize long-term planning and financial security. This group is more common among men and higher earners than women. Notable proportions of Gen Z in both the US and GB fall into this segment, showing that this cohort is not just thinking about living for today, but also preparing for the future. 
  3. Pre-emptive Planners will want flexibility from brands. The distinguishing behavior of this group is prioritizing making large purchases sooner, to potentially beat price rises or shortages. Their pragmatic approach is reflected in the fact that they are just as likely to say they prioritize short-term enjoyment and long-term planning, so messaging that leans too hard into either urgency or patience risks missing them. 
  4. Low Change consumers will want a focus on everyday value. This is the biggest segment among UK and US consumers. Their key attitude is that they are aware of international events, but these do not affect spending or planning decisions, and many also say they do not follow global events. Even so, nearly 1 in 4 consumers in the Low Change group say they pay closer attention to prices, so this group should not be read as entirely unreachable on price messaging.

Because Low Change is consistently the largest of the four groups, brands should resist the temptation to build a strategy purely around the more reactive segments. A credible, everyday value proposition that holds up regardless of the news cycle will do more to protect share with this majority group than crisis-specific messaging ever could. 

This is a snapshot of the bigger GB and US analysis. For the full reports, book a demo today to see the complete picture on Collision. 

How should brands respond to consumer uncertainty? 

Brands should offer immediate reassurance on prices while demonstrating long-term planning prowess. Depending on which segment they belong to, some consumers will prioritize short-term support while others will think more about the future. Based on current and target customer profiles, brands should dial up relevant aspects, but present a broad, credible offering that addresses both. 

With greater emphasis on price sensitivity across the board, the priority for many brands will be to reassure customers that they are doing everything they can to shield consumers from price rises, for instance by absorbing increased costs up to a point or finding cheaper alternatives. A commitment to maximizing value will appeal not just to Everyday Reducers, but the other segments too. 

For Pre-emptive Planners and Savers in particular, brands can show that they share concerns about building resilience against future shocks. This can be achieved by highlighting supply chain resilience or hedging fuel costs, for instance, to cushion consumers from inflation, as some airlines have been doing. Brands that communicate how they practice forward planning and can help customers do the same will resonate in uncertain times. 

There may also be opportunities for brands in some sectors to appeal responsibly to those consumers with a now-or-never mindset, or who plan to bring forward large purchases. This should not come across as trying to profit from difficult times or encouraging people to spend irresponsibly. Bear in mind that younger consumers, for example, want to combine short-term purchases with longer-term saving. 

Q&A 

  • What is consumer behavior like during a global crisis?

Nearly half of consumers in both the US and UK say they are paying closer attention to prices because of global events, and around 1 in 3 are cutting everyday spending or delaying big purchases. This pattern holds across categories, from groceries to international travel, showing that price sensitivity has become a mainstream, ongoing behavior rather than a short-term reaction (source: Foresight Factory, 2026). 

  • What consumer segments should brands target during periods of economic uncertainty?

Foresight Factory’s analysis identifies four segments: Everyday Reducers, who prioritize visible, near-term value; Savers, who want long-term financial reassurance; Pre-emptive Planners, who value flexibility around timing; and Low Change consumers, the largest group in both markets, who respond best to a consistent, everyday value proposition.

Talk to us 

Talk to us about what the latest headlines mean for your business strategy. From geopolitical shifts to supply chain shocks, the macro context moves fast. Its commercial implications move even faster, and rarely in obvious directions. Foresight Factory can help you translate current events into clarity on your most pressing strategic decisions. Get in touch at hello@foresightfactory.co.